was almost impossible to perfectly forecast such unusual situation.
The night before the race, the local meteorological bureau had already made a broad weather forecast and mentioned the possibility of short-time heavy precipitation, hail, lightning and high winds in the area. Early on the morning of the race, the weather bureau issued another notice that there would be significant temperature drop.
“With the current level of weather forecasting, the accuracy rate is high for a wide range,” Zhang said, “but for small local extremes, and in mountainous areas with complex terrain, this is beyond the current level of weather forecasting.”
Some critics have pointed out that in some top-level races hosted by developed countries, weather forecasts can be accurate even to the minute. In response, Zhang said this does not indicate that China’s weather forecasting level is lower.
“China’s forecasting level is basically comparable to that of developed countries when it comes to short-term weather forecasting,” Zhang said, “in these top events, the courses are small and usually in plain areas, so it is relatively easy for weather broadcasts.”
At the same time, Zhang also pointed out that the organizers of various events have different requirements for the accuracy of weather forecasts, which may also be the reason for the lack of accurate weather forecasts for this event.
“For events like rallies and off-road races, extreme weather is part of the competition, so it is likely that the organizing committee did not require a very accurate weather forecast,” Zhang said.
Responsible for the weather forecast of this event is the county-level weather station.
Lin Ao, a runner who participated in the race, recalled to China Youth Daily that in the previous years of the event, extreme weather rarely occurred. One year the track temperature was around 25-30 degrees Celsius, and another it was almost 35 degrees Celsius.
Late May is supposed to be late spring and early summer in northern China, and the weather fluctuates a lot, Zhang said. “Although this event has not experienced extreme weather in previous years, possible extreme weather should be taken seriously,” Zhang commented.
Many veteran marathoners pointed out to the Global Times that the sudden weather extremes do not prove that the race itself was bad, but the subsequent rescue was a test for the race organizers, which the organizers in Gansu failed to some extent.
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